ROBES – Robust Building Energy Systems
Swarmplot of calculated annualized greenhouse gas emissions under scenarios for a building heated with a heat pump in Zurich. Scenarios are added from left to right.
Duration /
2019–2021
Funding /
Swiss National Science Foundation
A/S Team /
L. Walker, I. Hischier, A. Schlueter
For building system design, a lifecycle perspective is required that considers operational and embodied impacts alike. Due to the long lifetime of buildings, it is further essential to study the performance of building systems subject to changing conditions such as temperatures, occupant behavior, electricity grid decarbonization, etc. ROBES investigates methods, models, and metrics to identify robustly performing building systems based on environmental and economic aspects. This is done by establishing a scenario-based robustness assessment framework that includes bottom-up dynamic building energy models and top-down models for future boundary conditions. The findings on robustness metrics are expected to support future design decisions.
Scenario-based robustness framework
A scenario-based robustness assessment allows for a robustness investigation of a design decision to a predefined set of potential future developments. It does not rely on probabilistic analysis and can therefore also be applied in cases of deep uncertainty. This makes it especially valuable when the future depends on political decisions such as decarbonization pathways and global warming development.
Multiple metrics exist that are used to determine robustness when working with a scenario-based approach. Some of them are used in infrastructure decision making while others are based on economic decision-making.
Simulation workflow of scenario-based robustness assessment with system impact and system cost. (Linus Walker et al. 2021 J. Phys.: Conf. Ser. 2042 012150).
Ultimately, robust decision-making also includes a thorough and critical examination of the assumptions and boundary conditions used in the modeling process. This is necessary to detect potential bias and make it transparent. Especially the assessed analysis period, how to allocate photovoltaics and where to draw the system boundaries needs investigation.
The project has been presented at the Frontiers in Energy Research seminar and at CISBAT 2021 conference. Multiple Journal Publications are currently in preparation and will be added here after publication.